GOES MMI: GOES M3 Prices Drop While Japanese Imports Grow

Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) import levels appear to have peaked in March of this year at 3580 metric tons. Despite a rise in June, import levels appear lower now than during the summer months, but are clearly higher than 2016 levels.

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With a Section 232 investigation still underway, we might expect to see declining import levels until the Department of Commerce submits a report to the Trump administration next month — at which point it remains unclear what will happen with steel imports.

The story behind GOES imports, however, looks quite different from the story behind other steel imports, particularly carbon steel – hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and coated products.

The GOES trade story has become more complicated, particularly when one considers what types of GOES materials have entered the U.S. market.

Most of the imports did not come from China or Korea (often the targets of trade complaints) — rather, the lion’s share of the volume comes from Japan. See chart below:

[caption id="attachment_89294" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: US ITC[/caption]

Yet, Japan produces several products for which no domestic source exists – namely, “heat-proof” products, including those using domain-refined processes used “…in specialty transformers where small size, high efficiency and low noise are at a premium.” Indeed, that description appeared in the U.S. International Trade Commission’s examination of "Grain Oriented Electrical Steel from Germany, Japan and Poland" (see link above).

The domestic producers did not win that trade case. ATI subsequently shut down its GOES operations.

Japan’s JFE and Nippon Steel remain the dominant GOES players for these more technically difficult higher end grades. The Kobe Steel scandal will have little to no impact on GOES markets, since Kobe does not supply the U.S. market with GOES.

Meanwhile, the market will await for additional grain-oriented electrical steel announcements (and potentially supply of H1-B) from Big River Steel, as well as some clarity around GOES with the Section 232 investigation.

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